The Future of the Legal Profession

Last week I attended the ACLEA (Association for Continuing Legal Education) convention in Santa Ana Pueblo, New Mexico.  I was fascinated by the plenary talk on Future Trends in the Legal Industry by Ward Bower of Altman Weil, Inc. a consulting firm specializing in the law firms.

The basis for Mr. Bower's talk was a scenario planning study:  Legal Transformation Study - Your 2020 Vision of the Future.  Scenario planning takes a date in the future, in this case 2020, and analyzes trends and uncertainties to develop potential scenarios of the future.

After extensive research and interviews, the study identified eleven trends and ten uncertainties facing the lawyers and the legal industry.  These trends and uncertainties then form the basis of the study's modeling of likely future scenarios.  First I will outline those trends and uncertainties and in the next few days, I will post regarding the four scenarios identified in the study.  Be for-warned, Mr. Bower's perspective is from the vantage point of big New York law firms, but the trends he is talking about will undoubtedly have considerable effect for solo and small firm lawyers too.

The study identified eleven trends:

• Gen X & Y lawyers seeking live/work balance
• Rise in demand for diversity in the legal profession
• Increased application of technology
• Increased Internet service delivery
• Standardization of legal information
• Unbundling, outsourcing, and bifurcation of legal services into higher- and lower-end offerings
• Legal practice globalization
• Increased demand for specialized experts due to more knowledge-based legal services
• Non-lawyer business managers; enhanced roles in law firms and legal departments
• Increased authority of corporate management (i.e. strategic sourcing departments) in legal purchasing decisions
• Economic and political/regulatory forces increasing the demand for legal work

The uncertainties identified were:

• What will the regulatory and compliance environments be like?
• What will the legal services delivery model be like?
• What will be the state of the global economy?
• To what extent will non-attorney legal services competition move upstream?
• Will the industry face a skills shortage?
• How focused will third-parties be on costs?
• Will the growth of privacy/data security issues lead to increased litigation?
• Which litigation model will prevail globally?
• Will non-governmental organizations be shapers and influencers of legal policies and regulation?
• What will be the level of penetration of smart technologies that mimic selective processes, actions, and expertise of lawyers?

If that all seems a little high flying, it is.  I will be posting again soon on the four scenarios that the study sees as most likely to develop from these trends and uncertainties and their implications for lawyers.  Now I have to get back to my regular task of creating online CLE programs!

To continue, see Future of the Profession, Part II.

- Peter H. Berge

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